Populi Center, a non-profit institution that studies issues of public opinion and policy, conducted a survey in the city of Surabaya from 6 to 13 October 2020 in 60 (sixty) villages/sub-districts spread proportionally across all sub-districts in the city of Surabaya. The purpose of this survey is to see the level of popularity, acceptability, and electability of the candidate pairs in the election of the mayor and deputy mayor of Surabaya.
The survey was conducted through a face-to-face interview method with a sample size of 600 (eight hundred) respondents selected randomly (multistage random sampling). The margin of error in this survey was 4.0% with a confidence level of 95%. The selection of Surabaya as the survey location is considering that Surabaya is one of the cities with a high population density. In addition, it is interesting to see how the public expects a replacement for Tri Rismaharini who has been considered to have many achievements.
The findings of this survey include, firstly, the name Machfud Arifin is the most widely known name with a percentage of 74.0 percent, followed by Eri Cahyadi with 68.8 percent, Armuji with 55.0 percent and Mujiman Sukirno 50.2 percent.
Second, Eri Cahyadi's name excels in the acceptability category as a figure who is able to bring about improvements, a figure who is liked, often appears on social media, understands the problems in the city of Surabaya the most, and is considered the most capable of handling Covid-19. Meanwhile, Machfud Arifin is considered the most capable of leading. The difference in acceptability between the two figures is still within the margin of error.
Third, in terms of the electability of the candidate pairs, Eri Cahyadi – Armuji is the pair most chosen to become Mayor and Deputy Mayor of Surabaya for the next period with 41.0 percent, beating the Machfud Arifin – Mujiaman Sukirno pair with a percentage of 37.7 percent.
Fourth, related to the level of choice stability, the people who answered are already firm with 52.0 percent, followed by still possible to change with 31.8 percent, and do not know/did not answer with 16.2 percent. This result shows that the level of people who have not yet decided on their choice (undecided voters) is quite high with 48.0 percent.
Fifth, for the level of participation, 80.7 percent admitted that they would use their voting rights, 14.2 percent answered that they were still considering the situation (development of Covid 19), then 2.3 percent answered that they did not come to the TPS. This shows that the enthusiasm and level of participation (voters turnout) of Surabaya city residents are quite high.
Contact Person: Hartanto Rosojati/ Populi Center Researcher (021-22123150)
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