“POLITICAL PREFERENCES VEHICLE 2019: PERSONALITY AND SOLIDITY POST DETERMINATION” This survey was carried out scientifically based on sampling according to probability sampling rules in 34 provinces in Indonesia. This survey was conducted on 23 September – 1 October 2018 after the determination and drawing of the serial numbers for the Candidates for President and Vice President, and after the establishment of a national campaign team from both the Jokowi-Ma'ruf and Prabowo-Sandi camps. The aim is to find out the electability map of the candidates after the election by the KPU. This survey was conducted by means of face-to-face interviews with 1,470 respondents who were selected using a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percent and a 95 percent confidence level. In terms of the electability of the pair, Jokowi-Ma'ruf received an electability rate of 56.3 percent. Meanwhile, the electability of Prabowo-Sandiaga is at 30.9 percent.
As for the level of stability of choice, the number of people who are satisfied with their choice increased slightly from 72.6 percent in August to 75.2 percent. On the other hand, the number of voters who may still change their choice also decreased from 13.4 percent to 12.1 percent. Judging from the distribution of voters, as much as 65.1 percent of the voters for the Joko Widodo – Ma'ruf Amin pair are voters who are satisfied with their choice. Meanwhile, voters for the Prabowo-Sandiaga pair who are steady with their choice are 33.3 percent. The election for the vice presidential candidate has not had a significant electoral impact related to the electability of the pair. This can be seen from the data in August where the electability of Jokowi - Ma'ruf was 55.1 percent, and only increased slightly to 55.6 percent in October. Likewise with the Prabowo-Sandiaga pair. In August the electability of this pair was 30.3 percent, while in October it was 30.9 percent. Thus, neither Ma'ruf Amin nor Sandiaga Uno as vice presidential candidates have so far not contributed to the electability of the presidential candidates, Joko Widodo or Prabowo Subianto.
What is also interesting is how millennial voters evaluate the two presidential and vice presidential candidates. Based on the findings, Joko Widodo is the most attractive figure in the eyes of millennial voters with an age range under the age of 34 with a percentage gain of 42.3%. In addition, millennial voters also appreciate Joko Widodo's speech. Millennial voters who liked Joko Widodo's speech style were recorded at 42.8 percent, slightly different from millennial voters who chose Prabowo Subianto's speech style of 43.2 percent. This shows that among the presidential and vice presidential candidates, Prabowo is no longer the only figure who is considered good at making speeches. Judging from the distribution of respondents by gender, the Jokowi-Ma'ruf pair was favored by both male respondents with a percentage of 57.0 percent and female respondents with a percentage of 55.6 percent. Meanwhile, the Prabowo-Sandiaga pair was chosen by 31.3 percent of male voters and 30.5 percent of female voters. Then, based on the distribution of support for the island regions, the data shows that the most distribution of Jokowi-Ma'ruf voters came from Eastern Indonesia, namely with a percentage of 61.8 percent, followed by Java Island with 55.8 percent. On the other hand, the distribution of Prabowo-Sandi voters came mostly from Sumatra, namely 42.8 percent, then Java Island at 31.9 percent. Furthermore, based on millennial age voters (under 34 years), more choose the Joko Widodo - Ma'ruf pair with a percentage of 56.1 percent.
Likewise with voters over the age of 35 who also voted for this pair with a percentage of 57.1 percent. Looking at the distribution of voters, the solidity of party support for the Jokowi-Ma'ruf pair is in the PKB (73.0 percent), PDIP (90.8 percent) and NasDem (82.3 percent) parties. Meanwhile, Golkar party voters have not fully supported the number one pair with a percentage of 58.0 percent. The same is true for PPP (47.5 percent). The Prabowo-Sandiaga pair itself received solid support from the Gerinda Party (86.2 percent), PKS (70.5 percent), Garuda (85.7 percent), and PAN (66.7 percent). Meanwhile, the Democratic Party was 54.5 percent. Based on this distribution, party voters who are still not solid in their choice of one camp are PPP, Democrats and Golkar. The survey findings, in the form of a simulation of the choice of political parties, note that there are at least five political parties that have the potential to pass the parliamentary threshold of 4 percent, namely PDIP (25.1 percent), Gerindra (11.8 percent), PKB (10.3 percent), Golkar (10.2 percent) and Nasdem (4.2 percent). Meanwhile, other election contesting parties have not safely passed the parliamentary threshold because they are still below 4 percent.
Contact Person : Dimas Ramadhan [085721277487]
*In the previous release there was an error in writing the Social Justice Party which we have corrected to become the Prosperous Justice Party. Thank You.
Full survey results here
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