Populi Center, a non-profit public opinion and policy research institution, conducted a National Survey from June 5 to 12, 2023. The respondent samples were spread proportionally across 38 provinces in Indonesia, including 4 (four) New Autonomous Regions, namely Central Papua, Southwest Papua, Mountainous Papua, and South Papua. The purpose of the survey was to determine public perceptions, especially regarding the performance of the Government, the performance of the Police, the dynamics ahead of the 2024 general election, and national issues that are currently being discussed. In addition, this survey also includes topics on gender equality from the perspective of the community. The survey was conducted using internal funding.
The data collection method in this survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews (face to face interview) was conducted using the Populi Center survey application to 1,200 respondents selected using a stratified random method. Margin of Error (MoE) is estimated at ± 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
The event began with a presentation of the findings of the Populi Center national survey by Populi Center researcher Hartanto Rosojati. The presentation was divided into several parts. First, there is an increase in public satisfaction with the performance of President Joko Widodo's (Jokowi) government. Second, most people believe that the Police will act neutrally and not side with any of the presidential candidates in the 2024 Election. Third, data shows that although violence against women and children is still worrying, the public is still quite satisfied with the government's ability to provide a sense of security for women and children. Fourth, related to the dynamics leading up to the 2024 Presidential Election, public support has narrowed down to three names, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan. In open questions and simulation questions of 3 figures, Ganjar Pranowo outperformed Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan. Meanwhile, regarding the legislative election, PDI-P is the most widely chosen party if the election were held today.
After the presentation of the survey findings, the event continued with a discussion session with the speakers present. On the first occasion, Populi Center Senior Researcher Ratri Istania stated that behind the increasingly worrying conditions of violence against women and children in Indonesia, there is the issue of women's political representation which is less than encouraging as a result of the current election system. So that the agenda to improve women's conditions is never maximized.
Responding to the survey findings, Gerindra DPP Chairman Dahnil Azhar Simanjuntak highlighted that the 'basic ingredients' or composition of Indonesian society based on today's education level are in accordance with the Populi survey sample. The Gerindra Party is aware of this, and therefore Prabowo Subianto, who is a presidential candidate from the Gerindra Party, is paying special attention to improving the condition of Indonesian education, especially considering the challenges of future global competition that emphasizes the quality of human resources.
For a resource person from the Perindo Party, Ferry Kurnia Rizkiyansyah, the context of President Jokowi's interference in the upcoming election needs to be seen as an effort to present continuity of development which is... legacy-his, especially the development of infrastructure and the National Capital. He also provided notes that need to be considered, especially regarding the social assistance program as the program that most needs to be continued by the next government. The Deputy Chairperson of Perindo hopes that in the future the social assistance provided will not result in the creation of a relationship of dependency by the community on the government. This needs to be anticipated considering that in the future Indonesia will experience a demographic bonus, so it should not experience middle income trap. Regarding Perindo's current position, he is quite optimistic that his party can gain sufficient support in the remaining time, because undecided and swing voters still quite large.
PKB Faction member, Syaiful Huda, commented on the condition of democracy in Indonesia. Apart from the good assessment of the progress of democracy as found by the Populi Center survey, he sees that currently civil society groups as an important element in terms of control over the government are in a weak condition. Therefore, his party is currently thinking about a democratic endowment fund scheme that can be directed at strengthening civil society. Regarding the dynamics of the presidential candidates, he sees that the competition is still dynamic because among the three existing figures, none have received dominant support of up to 40 percent. So various possibilities can still occur. Likewise with the position of his party, he is quite optimistic that PKB can still be better if Muhaimin Iskandar has officially become a presidential or vice presidential candidate. Because in several elections, East Java has been the determining province, and Cak Imin has a large voter base there.
In the final session, each speaker gave their closing statement. For Ratri Istania, who is also a lecturer at STIA LAN Jakarta, women are recipients of social assistance programs, and therefore it is not surprising that satisfaction with the Jokowi government is high, and satisfaction with democracy is quite good. Therefore, the upcoming election will determine the number of female legislative members. Meanwhile, for Dahnil Simanjuntak, presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is committed to ensuring that President Jokowi's policies can continue. Moreover, Prabowo is part of the current government, and has stated that he will continue to oversee the second half of President Jokowi's government until the end. The speaker from Perindo, Ferry Kurnia, emphasized his party's commitment to making the election a healthy competition, by carrying the theme of cheerful politics. For him, the existing presidential candidates need to prioritize healthy dialogue in the form of competing programs so that society can avoid divisive hate politics. Finally, Syaiful Huda from PKB said that the presidential or vice presidential candidate that his party will nominate is a figure who will maintain continuity. The Chairman of Commission X of the Indonesian House of Representatives also hopes that in the upcoming election there will be more than two pairs of candidates in order to maintain the health of democracy.
contact person:
Hartanto Rosojati (Researcher, Populi Center)
0812-2859-9876
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