Survei Nasional: Road to 2024 Elections: Dinamika Politik Jelang Debat Kandidat

Populi Center, a non-profit public opinion and policy research institution, conducted a National Survey from November 28 to December 5, 2023. The respondent samples were proportionally spread across 38 provinces in Indonesia, including 4 (four) New Autonomous Regions, namely Central Papua, Southwest Papua, Mountainous Papua, and South Papua. The purpose of the survey was to determine public perceptions, especially regarding developing national issues, government performance, and electoral positions and political dynamics ahead of the 2024 general election. This survey was conducted using internal funding.

The data collection method in this survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews (face to face interview) using the Populi Center survey application to 1,200 respondents selected using a stratified random method (multistage random sampling). Margin of Error (MoE) is estimated at ± 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

JOKO WIDODO GOVERNMENT EVALUATION

The data shows that 76 percent (very satisfied 10.9 percent, satisfied 65.1 percent) of the public stated that satisfied with President Joko Widodo's performance. Meanwhile, 22.6 percent (dissatisfied 20.8 percent, very dissatisfied 1.8 percent) stated that they were dissatisfied with President Joko Widodo's performance. The finding of the level of satisfaction with President Joko Widodo's performance has increased from the November survey which received 71.6 percent.

One of the government programs that received high support was development of the national capital in East Kalimantan. Data shows that 63.7 percent (strongly support 9.5 percent, 54.2 percent support) support the government's steps towards the development program of the nation's capital. While those who do not support are 30.1 percent (do not support 26.8 percent, strongly do not support 3.3 percent).

From 13 (thirteen) state institution as mentioned, level of trust The highest public vote was achieved by the TNI (85.8 percent), followed by the President (77.1 percent), KPU (73.1 percent), Bawaslu (73.8), MA (63.4 percent),

BPK (62.8 percent), Polri (65.2 percent), Attorney General's Office (59.7 percent), KPK (61.8 percent), MK (57.3 percent), DPR RI / DPRD (58.8 percent), DPD RI (55.8 percent), and Political Parties (55.6 percent).

POLITICAL DYNAMICS TOWARDS THE 2024 ELECTION

Various variations of presidential and vice presidential candidate campaign maneuvers have been carried out by the candidate pairs after the campaign schedule was officially opened on November 28, 2023. Of the 17 (seventeen) figures who were asked, Prabowo Subianto became the most widely recognized figure with 97.6 percent, followed by Megawati Sukarnoputri (97.4 percent), Ganjar Pranowo (92 percent), Anies Baswedan (89.9 percent), Gibran Rakabuming Raka (87.8 percent), Kaesang Pangarep (76.3 percent), Mahfud MD (75.4 percent), The Story of Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (68.1 percent), The Sun (67.5 percent), and Muhaimin Iskandar (64.0 percent). Meanwhile, other figures received popularity below 50 percent.

Then, of the 3 (three) candidate pairs who will compete in the upcoming election, if we look at it from... level of acceptability Of the several categories, the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair dominated the 11 (eleven) acceptability categories asked, starting from able to maintain security stability, able to be accepted by young people (millennials, gen z), able to govern, able to eradicate corruption, able to complete the Development of the Indonesian Capital City (IKN), committed to the Palestinian struggle, able to advance the Indonesian economy, able to reduce poverty, able to create jobs, able to control prices, and able to maintain tolerance.

In open questions (top of mind) presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto's name received the highest electability rating with 40.7 percent. In second place was Ganjar Pranowo's name with 19.3 percent, and in third place was Anies Baswedan with 18.5 percent. The other names received electability ratings below 2 percent. Meanwhile, for top of mind vice president, Gibran Rakabuming Raka's name received the highest electability rate with 31.8 percent, followed by Mahfud MD with 18.4 percent, and Muhaimin Iskandar with 12.6 percent. While the names of other figures received figures below 2 percent.

Findings on open questions for presidential and vice presidential candidates overlap with vote acquisition electability of candidate pairs currently. Data shows that the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair received the highest electability with 46.7 percent. In the next order, the Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD pair and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar received the same figure, which was 21.7 percent.

Regarding the implementation of the next election, 70.3 percent of the public wants... The presidential election is held in one round. Meanwhile, 21.8 percent wanted a two-round presidential election, and 4.3 percent answered that it didn't matter if it was one or two rounds. The remaining 3.6 percent answered that they didn't know or didn't answer this question.

Regarding the implementation legislative elections, if the election to elect members of the Indonesian House of Representatives were held today, PDIP would be the most widely chosen party with 17.1 percent. In the next order are Gerindra (16.3 percent), Golkar (12.3 percent), PKB (10.6 percent), PKS (7.4 percent), Demokrat (5 percent), Nasdem (4.6 percent), PAN (4.3 percent), PPP (3.6 percent), Perindo Party (1.4 percent). Followed by PSI (1.3 percent), Hanura Party (0.9 percent), PBB (0.5 percent), Labor Party (0.3 percent), PKN (0.1 percent) Ummat Party (0.1 percent). In this survey, no one chose the Gelora Party and PKN Garuda Party.

In general, the findings of this survey show that there is an increase in the level of satisfaction with President Joko Widodo's performance. This support is also seen from the survey findings that 72.2 percent of the public will choose a presidential and vice presidential candidate pair who will continue President Joko Widodo's programs.

Then, the current electoral position shows that no pair has yet gained electability of more than 50 percent, although the public is seen wanting the next election to take place in one round. There is still time for each candidate pair to continue to increase their electability, especially considering that the candidate debate stage by the KPU will take place soon.

National Survey Results Release December 2023