Populi Center, a non-profit research institution in the field of public policy and opinion, conducted a Survey of Voter Participation and Preferences Ahead of the Central Sulawesi Gubernatorial Election, from June 24 to July 3, 2024. The respondent sample was spread proportionally across 13 regencies/cities. The purpose of the survey was to see the current competition map among the candidates who are said to be competing in the upcoming Central Sulawesi Gubernatorial Election, as a reference for voters in determining their choice. The survey was conducted using internal funding.
The data collection method in this survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews (face to face interview) to 1,000 respondents selected using a stratified random method (multistage random sampling) with a range Margin of Error (MoE) ± 4 – 4.8 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level. The interview process was conducted face-to-face using the Populi Center survey application.
Data shows that Anwar Hafid is the most chosen figure if the Central Sulawesi gubernatorial election is held today. Of the four simulation models of 3 gubernatorial candidates, Anwar Hafid received the highest electability in the three simulation models. In the first simulation, Anwar Hafid won with 46.7 percent, followed by Rusdy Mastura (26.8 percent), and Mohamad Irwan Lapata (6.6 percent). In the second simulation, Anwar Hafid won with 39.3 percent, followed by Ahmad Ali (38.6 percent), and Mohamad Irwan Lapata (6.5 percent). Then in the third simulation, Anwar Hafid also won with 37.3 percent, followed by Ahmad Ali (36.5 percent), and Hidayat Lamakarate (11.2 percent). Lastly, in the fourth simulation, Ahmad Ali won with 33.5 percent, followed by Anwar Hafid (31.8 percent), and Rusdy Mastura (21 percent). The remaining numbers in each simulation were in the undecided and don't know/no answer categories.
Meanwhile, in the simulation of 2 candidates (head to head), Anwar Hafid received the highest electability in all candidate simulation models. In the first simulation, Anwar Hafid with 65.6 percent beat Mohamad Irwan Lapata with 11.1 percent. In the second simulation, Anwar Hafid with 63.7 percent beat Hidayat Lamakarate with 14.3 percent. In the third simulation, Anwar Hafid with 49.8 percent beat Rusdy Mastura with 31 percent. In the fourth simulation, Anwar Hafid with 43.3 percent outperformed Ahmad Ali with 41.4 percent. The remaining numbers in each simulation fall into the undecided and don't know/no answer categories.
In the pair simulation, Anwar Hafid, who is predicted to be paired with Reny Lamadjido, is superior to the other candidate pairs. In the first simulation, the Anwar Hafid-Reny Lamadjido pair with 43.4 percent beat the Rusdy Mastura-Ahmad Ali pair with 36.1 percent. In the second simulation, the Anwar Hafid-Reny Lamadjido pair with 41.4 percent outperformed the Ahmad Ali-Abdul Karim Aljufri pair with 39.9 percent. The remaining numbers in each simulation were categorized as undecided and refused to answer.
Reflecting on the findings above, the contest for the seat of Governor of Central Sulawesi is expected to be fierce, especially between Anwar Hafid and Ahmad Ali. Thus, the party that is able to gain support from undecided voters who will win the competition
Download Populi Center Central Sulawesi Survey Release July 2024
Download Media Release Populi Center Survey Central Sulawesi July 2024
contact person:
Hartanto Rosojati (Researcher, Populi Center)
+62 812 2859 9876
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