Populi Center, a non-profit organization that studies public opinion and policy issues, conducted a survey in the Province of South Sumatra (Sumsel) from 9 to 15 October 2021 which is spread proportionally in 17 districts/cities in the Province of South Sumatra. The data collection process was carried out before Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin, a Golkar politician and the Regent of Musi Banyuasin was caught in a red-handed operation by the KPK. The purpose of this survey is to find out people's perceptions of the dynamics of development, the performance of the provincial government, the handling of Covid-19, and political dynamics.
The data collection method in this survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 800 respondents who were selected using a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error (MoE) of ± 3.46 percent and a 95 percent confidence level. The face-to-face interview process is carried out by implementing strict health protocols.
There are several interesting findings from this survey. First, in general the level of satisfaction of the people of South Sumatra with the leadership of the Governor and Deputy Governor of South Sumatra is relatively high. The average level of satisfaction is at 7.58 on a scale of 1-10 and an accumulated score of 6-10 (positive/satisfied) is 79.9 percent.
Second, the majority of the people of South Sumatra are satisfied with the performance of the South Sumatra provincial government. Of the 800 respondents interviewed, 68.0 percent said they were satisfied (5.5 percent very satisfied, 62.5 percent satisfied) with the performance of the South Sumatra Provincial Government. Meanwhile, 18.0 percent said they were not satisfied (17.4 percent were dissatisfied, 0.6 percent were very dissatisfied), 11.8 percent said they were normal, and the remaining 2.3 percent did not express their opinion.
Third, the community acknowledges that infrastructure development and road repair are most impressive achievement from the government of Governor Herman Deru and Deputy Governor Mawardi Yahya. In open questions regarding the most memorable achievements of Governor Herman Deru and Deputy Governor Mawardi Yahya, 15.8 percent answered infrastructure development and 12.5 percent answered road construction and repair.
Fourth, the people of South Sumatra gave a positive assessment of development in South Sumatra in the past year. When asked about their assessment of development in South Sumatra in the past year, 74.1 percent of respondents answered that it had progressed (19 percent considered it had progressed rapidly, 55.1 percent considered it had progressed slightly). and around 12.1 percent considered development to have setbacks (9.6 percent considered it a little backwards, 2.5 percent rated it had a lot of setbacks).
Fifth, even though the development of South Sumatra is considered advanced, the general public feels that there is a decline in household income. It is suspected that this decline occurred in its entirety, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On a related question increase or decrease in household income Compared to a year ago, 49 percent of respondents said it had decreased (42.1 percent said it had decreased, 6.9 percent said it had greatly decreased). Meanwhile, 25.8 percent of respondents acknowledged an increase in income (24.9 percent said it had increased, 0.9 percent said it had greatly increased).
On the question of how his feelings about his condition/life situation, about 48.8 percent of respondents answered better (2.9 percent said they were much better, 45.9 percent said they were better). Meanwhile, respondents who answered worse were 30.1 percent (28.1 percent said their lives were worse, 2 percent said they were much worse off).
Sixth, the people of South Sumatra suggested several important matters that needed to be addressed, including lowering the prices of basic commodities, alleviating unemployment, and reducing the cost of basic education. When the respondent is asked a question related to what most need to be immediately addressed by the provincial government of South Sumatra, by 23.9 percent answered the high price of basic commodities (23.9 percent), followed by 21 percent answered the number of unemployed, by 16.5 percent answered the cost of basic education, and by 11.3 percent answered the cost/access to medical treatment . The other answer options got a score below 5 percent.
Seventh, the community is optimistic about the handling of covid carried out by the South Sumatra provincial government so far. on the question whether they were sure or unsure about the handling of COVID-19 by the South Sumatra Provincial government, 87.3 percent of the people said they were sure, while 9.6 percent said they were not sure.
On questions related to the performance of the South Sumatra Provincial Government in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, 89.3 percent of respondents rated the performance of the South Sumatra Provincial Government well in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, while 8.5 percent answered poorly.
Eighth, on several local issues, when respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the provincial government's plan to continue the construction of the Sriwijaya Grand Mosque in new land, 77.9 percent agreed (7.5 percent strongly agreed, 70.4 percent agreed). Meanwhile, 10.5 percent disagreed (10.0 percent disagreed, 0.5 percent strongly disagreed).
Society thinks badly corruption level in South Sumatra. When asked how bad or not bad the level of corruption in South Sumatra was, 54.3 percent answered bad (42.4 percent bad, 11.9 percent very bad), while 27.5 percent answered not bad (24.4 percent not bad , 3.1 percent is not very bad).
Ninth, for the future governor, the people give important criteria as follows, 97.5 percent answered experienced in leading, 97.4 percent answered obedient to worship, and 97 percent answered firmly.
Tenth, three most desirable abilities the people of South Sumatra from the candidates for governor include, by 63.6 percent said they were able to solve economic problems, by 9 percent said they were able to eradicate corruption, and by 7.6 percent answered they were able to provide public services. The other answer options are below 7 percent.
Eleventh, the people want the current governor to become the next Governor of South Sumatra. When the respondent is asked which candidate to choose, 52.3 percent answered the current governor, followed by 32.5 percent answered new candidates/figures, and 3.9 percent answered the current deputy governor. 11.4 percent of respondents did not state their opinion.
twelfth, the survey results show that Herman Deru is most popular figure. 96.6 percent of respondents said they knew Herman Deru, followed by Syahrial Oesman (73.5 percent), Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (70.5 percent), Mawardi Yahya (58.3 percent), and Eddy Santana Putra (55.9 percent) ). The popularity of other figures is below 40 percent.
thirteenth, the figure of Herman Deru excels in all acceptability question category Compared to the other 12 figures, this category includes clean of corruption (30.5 percent), the most daring to eradicate corruption (32.1 percent), the most able to lead (48.4 percent), the most bringing improvement (42.5 percent), the most religious adherents (34.6 percent), the most assertive (44.4 percent), the most frequently discussed (43.1 percent), the most appropriate (46.9 percent), the most frequently read in newspapers (27.1 percent), the most often watched on television (44.1 percent), and most liked (48.8 percent).
Fourteenth, many people vote for Herman Deru if the gubernatorial election is held today. In an open question if the gubernatorial election is held today, 41.4 percent answered Herman Deru, followed by Alex Noerdin (4.8 percent), Giri Ramanda Kiemas (4.0 percent), Eddy Santana Putra (2.1 percent), and Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (2.0 percent) ). As for other names, the percentage is below 2 percent.
Fifteenth, in an open question regarding what is most remembered from Herman Deru, Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin, Giri Ramanda Kiemas. The top three answers for Herman Deru are the Governor of South Sumatra (17.9 percent), good (6.4 percent), and road construction (5.9 percent). The top three answers for Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin are the Son of Former Governor of South Sumatra Alex Noerdin (15.5 percent), Candidate for Governor (7.1 percent), and Regent of Musi Banyuasin (6.9 percent). As for the top three answers to Giri Ramanda Kiemas is a politician/chairman of the South Sumatra PDIP (3.1 percent), younger brother of Taufik Kiemas (2.8 percent), and has no/no specific impression (1.2 percent).
Sixteenth, on closed questions (12 figures) related to the electability of the figure chosen to become the next governor, 50.4 percent answered Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (13.6 percent), Mawardi Yahya (4.9 percent), Eddy Santana Putra (4.3 percent), Prana Putra Sohe (3.1 percent), and Ridho Yahya (2.4 percent). Other figures get percentages below 2 percent.
Seventeenth, on closed questions (10 figures) related to the electability of the figure chosen to become the next governor, 52.5 percent answered Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (13.9 percent), Eddy Santana Putra (6.0 percent), Mawardi Yahya (4.8 percent), Prana Putra Sohe (3.8 percent), Harnojoyo (3.4 percent), Ridho Yahya (2.8 percent), Iskandar (1.6 percent), Popo Ali Martopo (1.4 percent), and Wahyu Sanjaya (0, 1 percent). As for 9.9 percent of respondents did not express their opinion.
Eighteenth, on closed questions (8 figures) related to the electability of the figure chosen to become the next governor, 55.8 percent answered Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (15.9 percent), Eddy Santana Putra (5.9 percent), Mawardi Yahya (5.6 percent), Harnojoyo (2.6 percent), Iskandar (1.6 percent), Giri Ramanda Kiemas (1.6 percent), and Wahyu Sanjaya (0.4 percent).
Nineteenth, on closed questions (5 figures) related to the electability of the figure chosen to become the next governor, 60.1 percent answered Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (17.3 percent), Mawardi Yahya (5.8 percent), Harnojoyo (3.8 percent), and Giri Ramanda Kiemas (2.5 percent).
Twentieth, in this survey, there are 3 simulations for 3 figures related to the electability of the figures chosen to become the next governor.
- On first simulation, 68.6 percent voted for Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (18.5 percent), and Giri Ramanda Kiemas (2.5 percent).
- On second simulation, 63 percent chose Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (19.0 percent), and Mawardi Yahya (7.1 percent).
- On third simulation, 66 percent chose Herman Deru, followed by Dodi Reza Alex Noerdin (19.1 percent) and Harnojoyo (3.9 percent).
Twenty-one, the top three answers when South Sumatra respondents were asked the main reason for choosing the candidate for Governor of South Sumatra, 20.9 percent answered that they had experience in government/bureaucracy, followed by the people (17.9 percent), and authoritative, wise (10.1 percent). The other answer options are below 6 percent.
The twenty-secondIn this survey, there are two questions related to political parties.
- On the question of which political party the next Governor of South Sumatra should be.
The majority of respondents considered that the next governor of South Sumatra should come from the Golkar Party (20.8 percent), followed by PDIP (15.9 percent), Gerindra (10.3 percent), Nasdem (7.04 percent), and Democrats (6.0 percent). percent). While other parties get figures below 5 percent.
- On the question if the legislative elections were held today which party would be elected.
22.4 percent answered that PDIP was the party most voted for, followed by Golkar (16.6 percent), Gerindra (16.1 percent), Democrats (6.8 percent) and PKS (3.4 percent). The other parties get figures below 3 percent.
Twenty third, in the cross-tabulation analysis results, Herman Deru's figure is dominant in the cross-tabulation analysis with the distribution of age, choice of political party, and religious category. The results of cross-tabulation analysis are as follows.
- Judging from the age distribution, Herman Deru excelled in all age categories, namely respondents in the age category less than 18 years (88.9 percent), between 19-25 years (72.9 percent), between 26-35 years (66.3 percent), between 36-45 years (68.8 percent), between 46-55 years (61.1 percent), and more than 56 years (62.3 percent). This finding is indicative considering the limited number of respondents.
- Judging from the distribution of party choices, 67 percent of PDIP party voters voted for Herman Deru the most. Likewise, voters for the Gerindra party (70.5 percent), Golkar (61.7 percent), PKB (69.6 percent), Nasdem (78.6 percent), PKS (74.1 percent), Democrats (63.0 percent), PAN (80.0 percent), and PPP (75.0 percent). This finding is indicative considering the limited number of respondents.
- Based on the religion category, Herman Deru is dominant in all segments of the religious electorate compared to other candidates. Starting from respondents who are Muslim (65.6 percent), Protestant (100 percent), Catholic (75 percent), Hindu (100 percent), Buddhist (100 percent), Confucianism (100 percent). This finding is indicative considering the limited number of respondents.
Generally, this survey shows that Herman Deru is still the most superior figure and most likely to become a candidate for Governor of South Sumatra for the next period. The figure of Herman Deru is the most popular figure, the figure who excels in all acceptability categories, as well as the figure most voted for in acceptability questions leaving other figures who have the potential to become his competitors.
Interesting findings are on questions related to political parties. Most people choose Golkar as the party that carries the candidate for the next Governor, but on the question of which party is most voted for, PDIP gets the largest percentage. This result indicates that the closeness between voters and parties is not very strong. Voters are more pragmatic in party affairs and the superiority of the figure/candidate is still the main consideration in the election for the next gubernatorial candidate. This is perhaps due to the strong political dynasty in political analysis in South Sumatra.
In general, the level of satisfaction with the leadership of the Governor and Deputy Governor is quite high (79.9 percent). The results are the same for the level of satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government, assessment of development, and handling of Covid-19. It is suspected that these satisfaction factors have boosted Governor Herman Deru's electability compared to other candidates. Even so, Governor Herman Deru still has homework, especially the most urgent agenda to address is the problem of high staple foods and the number of unemployed.
Contact Person:
Dimas Ramadhan / Researcher Populi Center
(0857-2127-7487)
Complete results of survey releases and media releases can be accessed via the following link.
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