Populi Center, a non-profit public opinion and policy research institution, conducted a National Survey from January 27 to February 3, 2024. Respondent samples were distributed proportionally across 38 provinces in Indonesia., including in 4 (four) New Autonomous Regions in the Papua region. The data collection method in this survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews (face to face interview) was conducted using the Populi Center survey application to 1,500 respondents selected using a stratified random method (multistage random sampling). Margin of Error (MoE) is estimated at ± 2.53 percent, and the confidence level is 95 percent. The survey was conducted using internal funding.
The purpose of the survey was to determine voter support for three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates after going through the open campaign and candidate debate stages, political party preferences, and public satisfaction with the performance of President Joko Widodo's government, as well as evaluations of state institutions.
VOTER PREFERENCES
Of the six presidential and vice presidential candidates who are contestants in the presidential election, Prabowo Subianto is the figure with the most known/popular with 96,5 percent, followed by Gibran Rakabuming Raka (91.1 percent), Ganjar Pranowo (89.9 percent), Anies Baswedan (88.9 percent), Mahfud MD (84.8 percent), and Muhaimin Iskandar (81.7 percent). Then, Prabowo Subianto is also the most popular figure with 83.1 percent, followed by Gibran Rakabuming Raka (75.5 percent), Ganjar Pranowo (70.5 percent), Anies Baswedan (65.2 percent), Mahfud MD (75.1 percent), and Muhaimin Iskandar (67.8 percent).
On open questions (top of mind) presidential choice, Prabowo Subianto is the most chosen figure as president if the presidential election was held today with 50.9 percent, while those who chose Anies Baswedan were 20.5 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo was 15.7 percent. Other names received percentages below 1 percent. Then in the open question of vice presidential choice, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (47.8 percent) was the most chosen name to become vice president, followed by Mahfud MD (18.4 percent), and Muhaimin Iskandar (17.1 percent). Other figures received percentages below 1 percent.
In the simulation of three presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs, The Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka pair received the most votes, namely 52.5 percent. .Meanwhile, the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair received support of 22.1 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD received 16.9 percent. When asked further about public support for the candidate pair they would choose, 79.8 percent admitted that they were firm with their choice. Meanwhile, 19.4 percent answered that it was still possible to change.
The data shows an increasing trend in the number of people who want the presidential election to last 1 (one) round. In this survey, when asked how many rounds of the presidential election they preferred, 79.9 percent answered 1 round, while 16.6 percent answered 2 rounds, and the rest did not mind the number of rounds (2.3 percent), and did not answer (1.2 percent). The reasons for preferring a 1-round presidential election were because there is more certainty about who will be the next president faster (41.2 percent), then to save costs (29.2 percent), so that government and public services return to normal (13.6 percent), reduce tension in society (12.1 percent). The rest answered for other reasons, and did not answer. The majority of the public (70.3 percent) also answered that they were sure that the presidential election would be completed in 1 round, while 25.3 percent answered that they were not sure, and 4.4 percent did not answer.
Regarding the legislative election, data shows that if the legislative election were held today, PDIP would be the most voted party with 17.4 percent, followed by Gerindra (16 percent), Golkar (11.7 percent), PKB (9.5 percent), PKS (6.9 percent), Demokrat (6.4 percent), PAN (6.3 percent), Nasdem (5.1 percent), and PPP (2.3 percent). The rest gave support to non-parliamentary parties, and refused to answer.
EVALUATION OF GOVERNMENT AND STATE INSTITUTIONS
This survey also shows a positive trend related to approval rating performance of the Joko Widodo administration. Data shows that 80 percent of the public stated that they were satisfied with the performance of President Joko Widodo. Meanwhile, 18.4 percent answered that they were dissatisfied, and the rest did not answer. A positive trend is also seen from the public's assessment of the implementation of democracy in Indonesia, where 75.1 percent of the public gave a very good and good assessment regarding the current course of democracy. This is a very good social capital for Indonesia considering that the election is getting closer.
Then, when the public was asked to assess the level of trust in several state institutions, the TNI (85.8 percent) and the President (77.1 percent) were the two state institutions with the highest level of trust. The next order was Bawaslu (76.3 percent), KPU (76.1 percent), Polri (73.1 percent), BPK (70.7 percent), Attorney General's Office (67.7 percent), MA (67.6 percent), KPK (65.1 percent), MK (63.7 percent), Political Parties (63.2 percent), DPR RI / DPRD (61 percent), and DPD RI (57.7 percent).
Executive Director of Populi Center,
Afrimadona, Ph.D
Download Populi Center National Survey Release February 2024
Download Media Release Populi Center National Survey February 2024
contact person:
Dimas Ramadan (Researcher, Populi Center)
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