Media Release: Voice Competition Ahead Of The Central Java Regional Election

Populi Center, a non-profit research institution in the field of public policy and opinion, conducted a Voter Participation and Preference Survey ahead of the Central Java Gubernatorial Election, from 17 to 22 November 2024. The respondent sample was spread proportionally across 35 regencies/cities in Central Java. The purpose of this survey was to see the current competition map among the candidates competing in the Central Java Gubernatorial Election as a reference for voters in determining their choice. The survey was conducted using internal funding.

The data collection method in this survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews (face to face interview) to 1,200 respondents selected using a stratified random method (multistage random sampling) with a range Margin of Error (MoE) + 2.83 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level. The interview process was conducted face-to-face using the Populi Center application.

The results of this survey show that first, :popularity level of the candidates questioned separately showed that Ahmad Luthﬁ's name received the highest recognition rate with 74.8 percent. In the next order were Andika Perkasa with 71.6 percent, Taj Yasin Maimoen with 70 percent, and Hendrar Prihadi with 44.7 percent.

Next, from the introduction of these figures, the highest level of liking was obtained by Taj Yasin Maimoen with 82.5 percent. In the next order are Ahmad Luthﬁ (80.2 percent), Andika Perkasa (77.8 percent), and Hendrar Prihadi (72 percent).

Second, open electability (top of mind) of gubernatorial candidates shows that the highest electability was obtained by Ahmad Luthﬁ with 45 percent, while Andika Perkasa was in second place with 28.8 percent. Other names that appeared received numbers below 5 percent, such as in third place there was the name Taj Yasin Maimoen (3.2 percent), and in fourth place there was the name Ganjar Pranowo (1.8 percent). The remaining numbers fell into the category of other ﬁgures, and 18.6 percent refused to answer.

To:ga, For open electability (top of mind) of deputy governor candidates, the highest electability was obtained by Taj Yasin Maimoen with 45.6 percent, followed by Hendrar Prihadi with 25.3 percent in second place. For the names of other figures, the figures were below 2 percent. While those who did not answer this question were 24 percent.

Fourth, on electability head to head candidate pair, Ahmad Luthﬁ-Taj Yasin Maimoen pair with 57.8 percent outperformed Andika Perkasa-Hendrar Prihadi pair with 32.8 percent. Meanwhile, the undecided population was 6.8 percent and those who refused to answer were 2.6 percent.

Fifth, on capability assessment which were asked separately, the data showed that the Ahmad Luthﬁ-Taj Yasin Maimoen pair were superior in all categories asked, starting from Having a lot of support from clerics (74.3 percent), Experienced/Understanding Central Java problems (59.5 percent), Able to build infrastructure (45.8 percent), Able to create jobs (45.6 percent), and Daring to eradicate corruption/illegal levies (42.5 percent).

Sixth, associated with source of election information, the public considered that the party who most often discussed or provided information regarding the development of the Central Java Pilkada was the Head of RT/RW/Hamlet with 18.8 percent. In the next order were Village/Kelurahan officials (18.2 percent), Study Groups (5.3 percent), PKK Groups (3.6 percent), Karang Taruna (2.2 percent), Babinsa (0.4 percent), Pencak Silat Organizations (0.4 percent), Bhabinkamtibmas (0.3 percent). Meanwhile, those who answered other figures were 16.9 percent, and those who refused to answer were 33.9 percent.

Seventh, related assessment of institutional neutrality asked separately, the TNI became the institution with the highest level of trust with 80.7 percent that the institution would act neutrally/not take sides with one of the candidate pairs in the Central Java gubernatorial election. In the next order are Bawaslu (78.9 percent), KPU (78.7 percent), RT/RW/Dusun Heads (73.9 percent), Polri (72.8 percent), Government employees/ASN (69.5 percent), and village officials (68.2 percent).

Eighth, related to the influence giving money/goods, the majority of the public or 54.8 percent considered that giving money/goods had an effect on choosing one of the candidate pairs. Meanwhile, those who answered that it had no effect were 42.6 percent. As for those who did not answer, 2.6 percent.

In general, the survey findings show that the superiority of Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin Maimoen is suspected to be due to the high popularity of both of them when compared to Andika Perkasa-Hendrar Prihadi. In addition, the accumulated level of favorability for Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin Maimoen is also higher than Andika Perkasa-Hendrar Prihadi. On the other hand, the assessment of the capability aspect which tends to favor Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin Maimoen supports the findings of the cause of the high electability of the pair. Other findings show that public trust in the neutrality of several institutions in the Central Java gubernatorial election is quite high because it is around 65 percent.

Download Populi Center Survey Release Central Java Province November 2024

Download Media Release Populi Center Survey Central Java Province November 2024