Media Release: Electoral Map Ahead Of Bojonegoro Regional Election

Populi Center, a non-profit research institution in the field of public policy and opinion, conducted a Voter Participation and Preference Survey Ahead of the Bojonegoro Pilbup, from November 6 to 12, 2024. The respondent sample was spread proportionally across 30 sub-districts. The purpose of this survey was to see the current competition map among the candidates competing in the Bojonegoro Pilbup as a reference for voters in determining their choice. The survey was conducted using internal funding.

The data collection method in this survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews (face to face interview) to 800 respondents selected using a stratified random method (multistage random sampling) with a range Margin of Error (MoE) + 3.46 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level. The interview process was conducted face-to-face using the Populi Center application.

The results of this survey show that first, open electability level (top of mind) candidate for regent shows that the highest electability was obtained by Setyo Wahono with 73.1 percent, while Teguh Haryono was in second place with 6 percent. Other names that appeared got numbers below 6 percent. While those who did not answer this question were 13.6 percent.

Second, For open electability (top of mind) candidate for deputy regent, The highest electability was obtained by Nurul Azizah with 74 percent, followed by Farida Hidayati with 6.1 percent in second place. For the names of other figures, the figures were below 6 percent. Meanwhile, those who did not answer this question were 14 percent.

Third, on electability head to head candidate pair, the Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah pair with 81 percent outperformed the Teguh Haryono-Farida Hidayati pair with 8.5 percent. Meanwhile, the undecided people were 9 percent and those who refused to answer were 1.5 percent. These results show an increase in the electability of Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah by 5.4 percent from
survey in October, while the electability level of Teguh Haryono-Farida Hidayati did not change or stagnated.

Fourth, associated with firmness of choice, 79.7 percent of the public answered that they were sure about the candidate pair they chose, while 20.3 percent answered that they would still change. From the certainty of the choice, voters of Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah who answered that they were sure and would not change were 81.6 percent, while voters of Teguh Haryono-Farida were sure about it.
Hidayati by 61.8 percent. This finding shows that strong voters from the Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah pair is higher.

Fifth, When people are asked about leadership traits separately, Setyo Wahono is considered the most authoritative figure (51.4 percent), firm (47.1 percent), honest (34.9 percent), and often provides assistance (28.3 percent). Then Nurul Azizah is considered the most populist (41.4 percent), religious (34.4 percent), and close to clerics/kyai (33.9 percent). Meanwhile, no one favors Teguh Haryono and Farida Hidayati in the leadership traits mentioned.

Sixth, related evaluation of trust in state institutions asked separately, the President was considered the state institution with the highest level of trust (scale 6-10) with 86.8 percent. In the next order are the TNI (84.9 percent), KPU (74.8 percent), Bawaslu (73.3 percent), KPK (70.9 percent), Polri (69.7 percent), DPR RI/DPRD (65.3 percent), Attorney General's Office (64.9 percent), MA (64.2 percent), MK (61.6 percent), and Political Parties (59.3 percent).

Seventh, this survey also asked about the perception of the Bojonegoro community's belief in the president and vice president elect Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka. The data shows that the majority or 93.4 percent stated that they believe that Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka can bring progress to Indonesia. Meanwhile, those who answered that they were not sure were 3.5 percent, and those who did not answer this question were 3.1 percent.

In general, the survey findings show that the high level of open electability for Setyo Wahono and Nurul Azizah, to the steadfastness of choice, as well as dominant leadership attributes that favor the two figures, are suspected to be the cause of the strong vote for the candidate pair Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah in terms of electability. head to head pair when compared to the Teguh Haryono-Farida Hidayati pair.

The distribution of political party voters in the 2024 Legislative Election (indicative) shows that support for Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah can also be seen from the solidity of the voters of the political parties that support the candidate pair. On the other hand, voters of PDIP and Perindo, which are parties that support the Teguh Haryono-Farida Hidayati pair, actually show a tendency to support Setyo Wahono-Nurul Azizah.

Download Populi Center Survey Release Bojonegoro Regency November 2024

Download Populi Center Survey Media Release Bojonegoro Regency November 2024

contact person:
Hartanto Rosojati (Researcher, Populi Center)
+62 812 2859 9876