Populi Center, a non-profit public opinion and policy research institute, held a discussion on the findings of the National Survey conducted from 29 October to 5 November 2023. Sample respondents were proportionally distributed in 38 provinces in Indonesia, including in 4 (four) New Autonomous Regions namely Central Papua, Southwest Papua, Mountainous Papua, and South Papua. The purpose of the survey is to find out public perceptions, especially regarding the evaluation of the Government's performance, evaluation, national issues that are being discussed, as well as the dynamics ahead of the 2024 general election.
This discussion themed Starting Point: The Electoral Position Ahead of the 2024 Election Campaign was attended by several speakers, namely Andi Sinulingga (Spokesperson for Anies Baswedan, Anies-Muhaimin Winning Team), Eko Kunthadi (Ganjar-Mahfud National Winning Team), Rahayu Saraswati (Deputy Commander of Young Voters of the Prabowo-Gibran Campaign Team), Afrimadona (Executive Director of Populi Center), and was hosted by Hartanto Rosojati (Populi Center Researcher).
The event began with the presentation of the Populi Center survey results in November 2023. When the public was asked about how influential the vice president was in choosing a couple who would compete in the 2024 election, the public's answer was 26.4 percent very important, 63.3 percent important, 8.0 percent unimportant, and 0.3 percent very unimportant.
The public is generally worried about money politics at 37.2 percent when the 2024 elections take place, in second place there are clashes between supporters of candidates 19.8 percent, and fake news / hoaxes 11.9 percent. Furthermore, how the public perceives presidential and vice-presidential candidates through several questions such as which vice-presidential candidate pair is best able to maintain security stability, namely Prabowo-Gibran 58.4 percent and other pairs get below 20 percent, which is able to be accepted by millennials Prabowo-Gibran 45.9 percent and others below 30 percent, then those who are able to govern Prabowo-Gibran 45.0 percent and others below 30 percent, and those who are able to advance the economy Prabowo-Gibran 39.0 percent and others below 30 percent.
When the public was asked an open question about the electability of presidential candidates, the top three public answers were Prabowo Subianto 35.1 percent, Anies Baswedan 18.2 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo 18.0 percent. Meanwhile, for open questions about the vice presidential candidate, the top three public answers were Gibran Rakabuming Raka at 25.9 percent, which was a huge jump from the previous survey of 1.5 percent. The next position is Mahfud MD 16.3 percent, this result also jumped from 3.6 percent from the previous survey. The third position is Muhaimin Iskandar 12.3 percent, this result also jumped from 4.7 percent from the previous survey.
The response from Andi Sinulingga, regarding the future survey results will be a picture for their success team. Secondly, these results can map the position for the future, "I am happy to see Anies Baswedan's trend increasing, this cannot be denied because of the results of his performance".
The second response came from Eko Kunthadi, who said that when the survey results are different, they should still be able to describe what has been achieved because the survey results should have the same pattern. "I often read survey results from various institutions therefore we often see the patterns," said Eko.
Furthermore, Rahayu Saraswati understands that the 1,200 sample in the survey may not be used as a guide, but as an illustration for the next work to be better. For Saraswati, the millennial generation seems to have gotten used to elections since the reform era.
Finally, Afrimadona, Executive Director of Populi Center, emphasized her response to the survey implementation method. She explained that the survey was conducted using the probability sampling. At probability sampling each voter has the same opportunity to be used as a respondent. In line with this, Afrimadona also said that the survey results capture what happened when the survey period was conducted. If the survey is conducted the following month, the results will very likely change following the dynamics that occur. Populi Center as a policy and public opinion research institution always wants to find answers from the public about the phenomena that are happening.
Download the November 2023 National Survey Release
contact person:
Hartanto Rosojati (Researcher, Populi Center)
62 812-2859-9876