National Survey Release: Three Year Evaluation of Joko Widodo's Performance – KH. Ma'ruf Amin and Political Dynamics Ahead of the 2024 Election

Populi Center, a non-profit policy and public opinion research institute, conducted a National Survey from 9 to 17 October 2022 with a sample of respondents spread proportionally across 34 provinces in Indonesia. The aim of this survey is
to find out the public's assessment of the three years of Joko Widodo's performance – KH. Ma'ruf Amin, as well as the political dynamics ahead of the 2024 elections.

The data collection method in this survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents who were selected using a multistage random sampling method with a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 2.83 percent and a 95 percent confidence level. The face-to-face interview process was carried out using the Populi Center survey application. The survey was conducted using internal funding.


Three Year Evaluation

The data shows, the trend of satisfaction with performance of President Joko Widodo in 2022 will increase. From 62.4 percent in March, then 63.6 percent in July, now in October the figure is 65.9 percent. When the public is asked government performance of President Joko Widodo and Vice President KH. Ma'ruf Amin during the last three years, 69.4 percent of the people answered good/positive by giving a value from 6 to 10. As for 27 percent rate bad/negative by giving a value from 1 to 5, and the remaining numbers fall into categories don't know/don't answer.

Five Presidential Work Priorities for 2019-2024 get a pretty good rating from the community. Equitable infrastructure development is a program that gets an assessment positive/satisfied the highest, namely by 71 percent, followed by improving the quality of Human Resources (HR) with 60.3 percent, simplification of the bureaucracy with 57.6 percent, simplification of regulations/regulations with 56.7 percent, and improving the quality of economic competitiveness with 55, 6 percent.

A number of related aspects governance and the life of the nation during President Joko Widodo's leadership, we also asked about it in this survey. Handling COVID-19 is the aspect that gets the highest good/positive score with 69.8 percent.
Several other aspects also received quite good ratings, starting from realizing a serving bureaucracy (66.4 percent), security stability (65.8 percent), equitable development (65.2 percent), handling intolerance (62.3 percent), create a sense of justice
(54.8 percent), political stability (54.4 percent), and job creation (48.5 percent).

During eight years During Joko Widodo's leadership as President, there were a number of things that were considered most beneficial, including the provision of social assistance (41.7 percent), followed by the construction of toll roads (24.3 percent), the availability of village funds (10.8 percent), land certification (5.1 percent), and dam construction (1.4 percent). Meanwhile, people who answered other work results were 6.9 percent, and people who refused to answer were 9.8 percent.

Although the provision of social assistance has received quite good appreciation, the public has also highlighted the government's accuracy in distributing social assistance (30.2 percent) as the problem that is considered most in need of handling from the central government. In addition to the accuracy of social assistance distribution, other problems are the ease of obtaining MSME capital (20.3 percent), the ease of obtaining health services (16.5 percent), population administration services (6.8 percent), the speed of dealing with fake news (5.7 percent). ,
security/citizen guarantees (5.3 percent), and ease of business licensing (3.3 percent). As for 7 percent answered other questions, and 4.9 percent did not answer.

Then we also evaluate public trust in a number of institutions. As a result, the TNI is the institution with the highest level of trust (score 6 to 10) with 81.7 percent, followed by the President (76.6 percent), the KPK (66.2 percent), the KPU (64.2 percent), Bawaslu (63 percent). ), MA (62.3 percent), BPK (60.2 percent). For Polri, the confidence level is 58.5 percent.

With regard to the performance of the Police, we ask the public to evaluate the satisfaction with the performance of the police institution while under the leadership of the National Police Chief General Listyo Sigit. 53.8 percent of the people answered satisfied/positive. While those who answered dissatisfied/negative were 32 percent, and the rest did not answer.

In the midst of strengthening views of democratic regression in Indonesia, we ask how the public evaluates the implementation of democracy in Indonesia. 70.6 percent of the people answered that the implementation of Indonesian democracy was going well (4.5 percent very good, 66.1 good). Meanwhile those who rated it as bad amounted to 21.6 percent (poor 18.5 percent, very bad 3.1 percent), and the remaining numbers were in the category of don't know/don't answer. These results indicate that the implementation of democracy in Indonesia is still going well.

In the economic field, Joko Widodo's government needs to pay attention to public perceptions of economic inequality between the rich and poor in Indonesia. The data shows that 69.6 percent of people think there is inequality (25.2 percent very unequal, 44.4 percent unequal). Meanwhile those who answered that there was no inequality were 22 percent (no inequality 19.8 percent, very not inequality 2.2 percent). When asked about people's perceptions regarding what causes inequality, 28.4 percent considered that unequal access to economic resources is a source of inequality, followed by a small number of jobs (18.1 percent), government policies that benefit the rich (14, 5 percent), loss of employment (14 percent), low level of education (6.8 percent), difficulty getting MSME capital (6.3 percent), and lack of skills (5.4 percent).


Political Dynamics

In addition to evaluating the three-year performance of Joko Widodo's administration - KH. Ma'ruf Amin, we are also trying to look at the political dynamics ahead of the 2024 general elections. Data shows that 73.8 percent of the public knows about the implementation of the Simultaneous Elections in 2024, while 26.3 percent don't know. In line with that, the enthusiasm of the public in welcoming the election event is also quite large. This can be seen from the high desire of the people who said they would use their right to vote, which reached 97 percent. Only 0.8 percent stated that they would not exercise their right to vote, while 2.1 percent said they could not decide yet, and 0.1 percent refused to answer.

Towards the change of presidential leadership in 2024, a number of names have emerged that have been mentioned as potential presidential candidates. Some of them are those who currently hold or have held public positions, and therefore it is important to see how the community evaluates the performance of these figures based on their respective positions. Of the six figures whose performance was evaluated separately, Prabowo Subianto as Minister of Defense was the figure with the highest positive/good rating
with 76.1 percent. Followed by Anies Baswedan as Governor of DKI Jakarta (70.9 percent), Ganjar Pranowo as Governor of Central Java (69.1 percent), Andika Perkasa as TNI Commander General (57.1 percent), Airlangga Hartarto as Coordinating Minister
Economy (44.3 percent), and then Puan Maharani as Chair of the Indonesian Parliament (43.3 percent).

From 6 (six) figures touted as a presidential candidate, Ganjar Pranowo is the figure most widely expected to become President in 2024, with 27.5 percent. Then, 26.3 percent of the public expected Anies Baswedan, followed by Prabowo Subianto (23.5 percent), General Andika Perkasa (5.3 percent), Puan Maharani (2.8 percent), and Airlangga Hartarto (1.3 percent). ). As for those who haven't decided yet, the number is 11.8 percent, and those who refuse to answer this question are 1.5 percent.

Regarding the electability level of the 3 (three) presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo excels with 29.7 percent, followed by Anies Baswedan (29.2 percent) and Prabowo Subianto (27.6 percent). Meanwhile, 12.3 percent of the public had not yet decided which candidate to vote for, and
1.2 percent refused to answer.

For the electability level of the vice presidential candidate (semi-open question), Ridwan Kamil received the highest support with 17.1 percent, followed by Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (15.8 percent), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (12.3 percent), General Andika Perkasa (8.3 percent), Erick Thohir (7.8 percent), and Khofifah Indar Parawansa (7.3 percent). Meanwhile, other figures received percentages below 5 percent. Meanwhile, 19.3 percent of the people refused to answer this question.

Regarding the political dynamics ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election, one of the things that is currently hot is the support from the Nasdem Party, which is part of the government coalition, for Anies Baswedan. When people were asked about this stretcher, it was 20.2 percent
society considers this to be an unethical act. Then, when asked what political sanctions were appropriate for the party, 31.4 percent answered transferring ministers from Nasdem to other ministries/agencies, followed by all ministers from Nasdem being removed (17.4 percent), and one or two ministers from Nasdem being removed. (14 percent). 3.3 percent answered other options, and 33.9 percent refused to answer.

With less than 2 years remaining in the legislative elections, the results of this survey show that there has been a decline in PDIP electability. On the other hand, Nasdem, which had just announced its support for Anies Baswedan, experienced a slight increase in electability. Overall, there are at least 7 political parties that get an electability percentage of above 4 percent if the elections are held today. These parties are PDIP (15.7 percent), Gerindra (12.6 percent), Golkar (10.3 percent), PKB (7.8
percent), Nasdem (7.3 percent), PKS (6.4 percent), and the Democratic Party (6.3 percent). The other parties get figures below 4 percent.

In general, the three years of the administration of President Joko Widodo and Vice President KH. Ma'ruf Amin still gets a positive assessment from the public. Nonetheless, there are a number of challenges in the remainder of Joko Widodo's reign. Among them is the challenge of the economic recession whose impact is now starting to be felt. Therefore, government and political solidity is an important key to facing shocks in the coming years.

Contact Person:
Rafif Pamenang Imawan / Researcher at the Populi Center


October 2022 National Survey Release



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